Pink Fire Pointer Blizzard of 2013

Blizzard of 2013

After a week of nonstop model watching and meteorological analysis that largely proved to be right on the money many Connecticut residents are literally snowed in for the first time in their lives as the Blizzard of 2013 put down a strip of at least three feet of snow across a wide swath of the central part of the state. Living in Stratford I am completely unable to go anywhere and do not anticipate being able to leave home for a few days still. This historic storm surpassed anything except for the Blizzard of 1888 in most of Connecticut, with the Blizzard of 1978's snowfall not nearing the totals we received. While the latter storm left an indelible mark because of the chaos it created - moving in with the heaviest snow much more quickly and with stronger winds affecting Connecticut - this system will not be forgotten because of the sheer volume of liquid it dumped on us.

Here is what the Blizzard of 1888 dumped via Wunderground:


Of course that is less precise than it would be today, but considering our inability to measure these amounts even in 2013, it is a very good representation of what occurred. Once again the center of the state had a streak of huge amounts but the system was much closer to shore and put snow much further to the northwest. It did a complete loop off Long Island and Massachusetts, continually snowing and pushing itself to number one all-time. As the upper level low and surface low came together in this 2013 storm it stalled out and, when combined with deformation bands filled with convection and an incredible cold conveyor belt, put more snow down than we had seen in 125 years in many locations.

It is very difficult to measure how much snow fell without doing it by clearing a snow board every certain number of hours throughout the storm. I used a variety of techniques and still came up in "just" the low 30s in inches in Stratford. However, watching the storm nearly nonstop via an enormous amount of modeling, radars, and analysis tools while staring out the window throughout the heaviest portions makes me think we all probably had something more along the lines of 36-40 inches with isolated areas over 40. Flat open areas had more snow at 2 or 3AM than they did in the morning after the storm because of all the strong wind that continued after the heaviest snowfall ended.

Let's give a lot of credit to numerical weather modeling systems like the European (ECMFW) that nailed the storm and its potential place in history several days out. The "Euro" has the best verification scores of any model and once again proved it is the best as it found a solution and shifted only slightly from it. If it had any fault it was too warm and too dry until near the end, and a little too widespread. The short-range North American Model (NAM) was largely correct in its Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, placing the banding right over us and to extreme levels of three to four inches of water nearly three days away. Where it failed - extending the main batch of precipitation too far to the west - the Global Forecast System (GFS) picked up a little of the slack showing that places like Greenwich continuing west would have a much more run of the mill total. However, both the NAM and GFS still veered wildly over the map at times, and investing in these two American models (along with all science and education!) would be a wonderful thing to do in order to improve them and others.

For what it's worth, here are some of the snowfall totals:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
315 PM EST SAT FEB 09 2013

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE STORM
THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO
HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND
MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME
PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

THANK YOU TO ALL...FOR THE REPORTS DURING THIS MAJOR WINTER STORM.
THE NWS APPRECIATES THE HUNDREDS OF REPORTS THAT HAVE BEEN SENT IN.
IF YOUR REPORT IS NOT INCLUDED BELOW...BE ASSURED THAT IT WAS
RECEIVED AND IS BEING USED BY THE NWS METEOROLOGISTS.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
FAIRFIELD 35.0 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
STRATFORD 33.0 1030 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MONROE 30.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BRIDGEPORT 30.0 658 AM 2/09 COOP OBSERVER
SHELTON 26.5 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
WESTON 26.5 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WESTPORT 24.5 645 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
GREENWICH 22.5 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
DARIEN 22.1 500 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NORWALK 22.0 730 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
ROXBURY 22.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEW CANAAN 22.0 600 AM 2/09 CT DOT
DANBURY 21.5 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT
STAMFORD 19.0 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NEWTOWN 17.1 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
BETHEL 16.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RIDGEFIELD 12.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
EAST HADDAM 35.5 845 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
OLD SAYBROOK 30.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT
CLINTON 27.5 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
HADDAM 27.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT
HIGGANUM 24.0 700 AM 2/09 AMATEUR RADIO
CROMWELL 23.0 700 AM 2/09 AMATEUR RADIO
MIDDLETOWN 12.0 1200 PM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
HAMDEN 40.0 100 PM 2/09 PUBLIC
MILFORD 38.0 615 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
CLINTONVILLE 37.0 1040 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
OXFORD 36.2 600 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORTH BRANFORD 36.0 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MERIDEN 36.0 200 PM 2/09 PUBLIC
YALESVILLE 35.0 909 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WALLINGFORD 35.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NEW HAVEN 34.3 600 AM 2/09 CT DOT
WEST HAVEN 34.0 1040 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NORTHFORD 33.5 950 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WOLCOTT 33.0 457 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
EAST HAVEN 33.0 1005 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
GUILFORD 33.0 1113 AM 2/09 BROADCAST MEDIA
NORTH GUILFORD 32.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WATERBURY 32.0 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MADISON 32.0 321 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NAUGATUCK 30.0 600 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NORTH HAVEN 29.0 950 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BRANFORD 28.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
SOUTHBURY 26.3 1030 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORTH BRANDFORD 24.0 1230 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
BEACON FALLS 21.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
COLCHESTER 31.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT
GILMAN 27.0 600 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NORWICH 25.0 600 AM 2/09 CT DOT
LISBON 24.0 1158 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
GALES FERRY 24.0 1045 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
OLD LYME 23.6 1200 PM 2/09 PUBLIC
LEDYARD CENTER 22.0 1045 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MYSTIC SEAPORT 21.0 1100 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE
STONINGTON 15.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
137 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2013

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 20
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...HARTFORD COUNTY...
GLASTONBURY 33.5 326 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC
MANCHESTER 32.0 1044 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO
WEATOGUE 31.0 1012 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO
NEWINGTON 30.0 724 PM 2/09 NONE
SO GLASTONBURY 29.0 1255 PM 2/09 NONE
FARMINGTON 29.0 918 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO
GRANBY 29.0 938 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE
BURLINGTON 27.5 902 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
HARTFORD 27.0 929 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO
CANTON 26.0 956 AM 2/09 NONE
NORTH GRANBY 25.0 610 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
AVON 25.0 643 AM 2/09 NONE
BRISTOL 24.0 908 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
SIMSBURY 24.0 618 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO
COLLINSVILLE 23.5 806 AM 2/09 NONE
WINDSOR 23.0 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS
SOUTH WINDSOR 23.0 1250 PM 2/09 NONE
WINDSOR LOCKS 22.8 108 PM 2/09 BDL AIRPORT
ASHFORD 22.0 931 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO
EAST HARTFORD 20.0 621 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO
ENFIELD 20.0 620 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO

...TOLLAND COUNTY...
COVENTRY 32.5 1143 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
STAFFORDVILLE 31.4 100 PM 2/09 NWS COOP
TOLLAND 30.5 914 AM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC
STAFFORD SPRINGS 26.1 1237 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
SOMERS 25.5 646 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WINDHAM COUNTY...
EAST KILLINGLY 26.0 1105 AM 2/09 NONE
WOODSTOCK 26.0 1024 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
THOMPSON 25.5 1008 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
HAMPTON 25.0 829 AM 2/09 COOP OBSERVER
ASHFORD 24.0 828 AM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC
DANIELSON 22.5 933 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO
POMFRET CENTER 22.0 1114 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER

In my next entry I will look at some of the details of what exactly pushed us to ridiculously elevated levels of snowfall as rates touched six or seven inches per hour in some areas! This storm will be studied by meteorological experts for years to come. After the historic 2010-2011 winter with multiple major or historic snowstorms, Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene, the October snowstorm, Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy...what will we have next? We are building quite the pile of evidence for a changing climate here in the northeast and we have to prepare for the worst for our environment.


Scott Kruitbosch
Conservation Technician